Finansnyt
Posted af John Yde, 20/03/2014
Grafen herover viser udviklingen i det schweiziske boligmarked. Den hvide kurve viser det såkaldte boligboble index fra UBS. Dette index er ved at være i den modsatte ende af skalaen i forhold til 2000/2001. Det er klart, at de meget lave renter er med til at skubbe til udviklingen. Den blå linie viser udviklingen i den schweiziske centralbanks styrerente. Kurven er vendt på hovedet, hvilket altså betyder, at en stigning i linien svarer til et fald i renten. Det viser tydeligt sammenhængen til udviklingen i boligmarkedet. Når renten falder (den blå kurve stiger), så stiger boligmarkedet. Til orientering er også vist udviklingen i schweizerfrancen (den gule linie). Her er brugt Bank of Englands udregning af den effektive valutakurs.
Grafen herover viser udviklingen i det schweiziske boligmarked. Den hvide... Læs merePosted af John Yde, 20/03/2014
I forlængelse af vores indlæg i går om, at det er byggeriet, der styrer væksten i Kina, beretter Businessweek om, at den kinesiske regering i dag har besluttet af øge bygge tempoet og fremrykke projekter for at støtte væksten. Det viser yderligere, at der er en reel fare for, at den kinesiske vækst ikke vil nå 7,5% målet. Flere oplysninger i dette link:
I forlængelse af vores indlæg i går om, at det... Læs merePosted af John Yde, 20/03/2014
Det var nok især dette billede, som “forskrækkede” finansmarkederne. Den gule markering viser Fed. chefernes forventning til Fed. funds renten i 2015. En enkelt forventer 3% rente, 2 forventer 2%-2,25%, og flertallet forventer en rente på mindst 1%. Grafen stammer fra Feds. prognose, der blev udsendt samtidig med FOMC beslutningen. Hele denne prognose kan downloades ved at klikke på billedet herunder:
Posted af John Yde, 20/03/2014
Release Date: March 19, 2014
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee’s guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee’s policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee’s commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.
Release Date: March 19, 2014 Information received since the Federal... Læs merePosted af John Yde, 20/03/2014
08.00 Schweiz handelsbalancen for februar.
08.00 Tyskland producentpriser for februar.
09.00 DK detailsalget for februar.
09.30 Rentebesked fra Swiss National Bank.
13.30 US ugentlig tilgang til arbejdsløshedskøen.
14.45 US ugentlig forbrugertillid fra Bloomberg.
15.00 US Philadelphia Feds. index for marts.
15.00 US salget af eksisterende boliger for februar.
15.00 US ledende indikatorer for februar.
16.00 ECBs Sabine Lautenschläger taler i Düsseldorf
17.30 Bank of Englands Martin Weale taler i Windsor.
00.00 Australien ledende index for jan. fra Conference Board.
Posted af John Yde, 19/03/2014
Den amerikanske betalingsbalance er i klar bedring. I 4. kvartal blev underskuddet på 81.12 mia. $, og det er det laveste underskud siden 1999.
Den amerikanske betalingsbalance er i klar bedring. I 4. kvartal... Læs merePosted af John Yde, 19/03/2014
Bank of England har udsendt referat af sit seneste pengepolitiske møde, der blev afholdt 5.-6. marts. Klik på billedet herover for at downloade et eksemplar.
Bank of England har udsendt referat af sit seneste pengepolitiske... Læs mere
Posted af John Yde, 19/03/2014
Business cyclen har 3 grupper af parametre: 1) Leading indicators, 2) Coincient Indicators og endelig 3) Lagging indicators. Hver af disse parametre består af enkelttidsserier, der hver især har en tidsserie, der udspringer af arbejdsmarkedet. F.eks. indeholder leading indicators 10 tidsserier, som er samlet i en tidsserie. En af disse tidsserier er: “Arbejdstiden”. I coincident er arbejdsmarkedstidsserien: “Beskæftigelsen”. Endelig er tidsserien i lagging indicators: “Den tid, man er arbejdsløs”. Det betyder, at arbejdstiden leder beskæftigelsen, som leder den tid, man er arbejdsløs. Vi har vist “growth cyclen” i Business Cyclen. I den øverste del at figuren har vi vist “arbejdstiden”. I den midterste del af figuren har vi vist “Beskæftigelsen” og endelig har vi i den nederste del vist “den tid, man er arbejdsløs”. Vi har også vist de 4 faser, som de alle 3 bevæger sig i. Arbejdstiden er faldet. Den er gået ind i fase 2. Det betyder, at vi kan forvente, at beskæftigelsen vil gå i fase 2 og endelig kan vi forvente, at den tid, man er arbejdsløs vil bevæge sig ind i fase 4. Det betyder, at den vil begynde at stige. Situationen antyder, at den amerikanske økonomi er på vej ind i en “slow down” i den økonomiske udvikling. En række økonomer forklarer situationen med, at det er vinteren, der er årsagen. Det kan selvfølgelig ikke afvises, men der har altid været en tendens til, at økonomer vil bortforklare dårlige nøgletal i en vendingsfase fra en opgang til en nedgang. Det kan selvfølgelig være en korrekt forklaring, at det er vinterens skyld, men hvis udviklingen ikke retter sig i de næste 3-4 måneder, så er en korrektion i den økonomiske udvikling på vej. Derfor er der grund til disciplinært at se på tallene hver eneste måned i den kommende tid.
Posted af John Yde, 19/03/2014
Der er et lille stykke af Tyrkiet placeret dybt inde i Syrien. Det drejer sig om den tidligere tyrkiske hersker, Sulayman Shah (1178-1236), der er begravet på et stykke jord tæt Aleppo. Det tyrkiske flag vejer på dette stykke jord, der beskyttes af et dusin tyrkiske soldater. Tyrkiets udenrigsminister har fornylig sagt, at man vil gengælde alle angreb på dette gravsted. Tyrkiet betragter et angreb på gravstedet som et angreb på Tyrkiet, og det kunne altså i givet fald give anledning til, at Tyrkiet forsøger at vinde tabt terræn tilbage. Man kan få en forestilling om placeringen på Google Map herunder:
Der er et lille stykke af Tyrkiet placeret dybt inde... Læs mere