Finansnyt
Posted af John Yde, 20/12/2010
Figuren herover viser udviklingen i den amerikanske gæld relativt til BNP fra 1929 til 2009. Læg især mærke til, at den aktuelle gæld er større end ved indgangen til den amerikanske depression i 1933.
Posted af John Yde, 20/12/2010
Varer tiden som international reservevaluta omkring 100 år? Denne artikel argumenterer for det, idet den indsatte figur samtidig viser dollarens købekraft fra 1$ i 1914 til under 5 cent nu. 
First and foremost, fiat currencies are nothing more than units of political promises. That can work for awhile, until the sheer weight of the lies (units of debt over the ability of the issuers to repay) brings the system down. The sovereign debt and hard-coded obligations of the U.S., Europe, Japan, and many other countries are now unpayable, period. With no way out, its either overt default or a continuation of the currency debasement that has been a dominant theme of the last 50 years.
And while it may seem that something as long lasting as a reserve currency will never be replaced, history has clearly demonstrated it can and inevitably will.
In fact, the historical record shows that the typical reign of a reserve currency lasts just about 100 years. Consider
Portugals currency was the most widely used in commerce between approximately 1450 and 1530, about 80 years. (While most people arent aware of it, Portugal was mind-bogglingly wealthy at the time, thanks to its stealth trade with Asia and elsewhere.)
Spains currency took the title between 1530 and about 1640, or 110 years.
The Dutch currency then stepped into the winning circle and stayed there from 1640 to about 1720 80 years.
The French franc followed, holding the currency crown for about 95 years, between 1720 and 1815.
After which the spread of the British Empire (often at the expense of the French) led to the English currency being the most widely used from 1815 to 1920, again about 105 years.
Which, in turn, led to the U.S. dollars turn as the global reserve currency, starting 91 years ago.
Of course, theres nothing mystical about the length of time a currency is found to be particularly useful in global commerce. Rather it is that the nation that controls such a currency is given all manner of advantages. Out of the need for a simple medium for international exchange, other countries will go along to get along for as long as it suits. However, in time, especially if the issuing country gives in to the temptation to abuse the currency, using the reigning reserve currency begins to suit less and less, and a new reserve currency emerges.
While the U.S. dollar has certainly had a good run, in the historical context, its run has not been especially remarkable. And you can see for yourself in the chart here, almost straight out of the box in 1920, when it took the crown from the British pound, its been steadily degraded most notably since the early 1970s when Nixon canceled its convertibility to gold. Since that time it has been on a slope every bit as steep as an Aspen ski hill.
Varer tiden som international reservevaluta omkring 100 år? Denne artikel... Læs merePosted af John Yde, 20/12/2010
08.00 Tyskland producentpriser for november.
09.30 DK forbrugertillid for december.
10.00 Eurozonen betalingsbalance for oktober.
14.30 Canada engrossalget for oktober.
14.30 US Chicago Feds. aktivitetsindex for november.
16.00 Eurozone forbrugertillid for december.
00.00 Australien ledende index for okt. fra Conference Board.
01.01 Bank of England offentliggør Andrew Haldanes tale.
01.01 UK forbrugertillid for december fra GfK.
01.30 Reserve Bank of Australia udsender referat af seneste pengepolitiske møde.
05.30 Japan industrien aktivitetsindex for oktober.
08.00 Tyskland forbrugertillid for januar fra GfK.
Posted af John Yde, 17/12/2010
Hvis der er tale om det gennembrud nedad, som det ligner i EUR/USD, så er vi sandsynligvis nu på vej mod 1.304 og 1.2845 niv. jvnf. de viste mål. Ideelt vil kursen nu stabilisere sig under 1.318 niv., før nedturen fortsætter. Kursen skal dog over 1.327 for helt at neutralisere den aktuelle nedtur.
Posted af John Yde, 17/12/2010
Denne graf viser antallet af potentielle nybyggerier i USA. Der er tale om en graf, der viser antallet af byggetilladelser, der er udstedt men endnu ikke udnyttet. Tallet er nu nede på et niveau, der ikke er set siden december 1961.
Posted af John Yde, 17/12/2010
Det er bare FOR VILDT. Hvis du har tid til en pause i 7 min. så nyd denne video
Det er bare FOR VILDT. Hvis du har tid til... Læs merePosted af John Yde, 17/12/2010
Grafen viser udviklingen i den amerikanske inflation (grøn linie) og 30 årige realkreditrente (blå kurve) siden 1970. De grå felter angiver recessionsperioder.
Posted af John Yde, 17/12/2010
Figuren herover viser, boligen udgør af amerikanernes egenkapital siden 1950.
Posted af John Yde, 17/12/2010
Denne graf fra Societe Generale viser, at hvis man ser på råvarerne i forhold til prisudviklingen, så har der stort set ikke været nogen udvikling siden 1871 (den sorte linie), mens både aktier og obligationer har produceret et positivt afkast.
Posted af John Yde, 17/12/2010
Det internationale ratingbureau Moody’s har til morgen nedjustereret den irske kreditværdighed 5 takker fra Aa2 til Baa1 og udsigterne er negative. Flere detaljer i denne artikel:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-17/ireland-s-rating-downgraded-by-moody-s-to-baa1-from-aa2-outlook-negative.html