Finansnyt
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
De spekulative nettopositioner på Chicago futuresmarkedet viser en lille overvægt af sælgere. Der er knap 5000 flere salgs- end købspositioner i hvedefuturen. Figuren herunder viser, at der fortsat i historisk sammenhæng er tale om store hvedelagre.
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
Den europæiske hvede (basis Matif 2. pos. = blå kurve) er fortsat på et højt niveau relativt til den amerikanske hvede (basis Chicago 2. pos. = rød kurve). Den amerikanske kurve er reguleret både for kontraktstørrelse og valuta. Hvis de to kurver skulle være parallelle, så burde den europæiske hvedepris falde fra det aktulle 211 niv. til ca. 184.
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
Hvem har egentlig lånt Irland penge? Chartet herover viser iflg. BNP Paribas, hvilke lande, der er Irlands største låntagere.
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
Figuren fra N.Y. Times viser en sammenligning af udviklingen i den japanske kerneinflation og den tilsvarende amerikanske. Den amerikanske kerneinflation er nu den laveste i efterkrigstiden, og chartet tager udgangspunkt i en sammenligning af de to landes kurver med udgangspunkt i tidspunktet, hvor ejendomsmarkedet toppede.
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
Billedet herover af det seneste nummer af Barron’s, der indikerer, at de amerikanske husholder er parat til at bruge penge igen. Det står i skærende kontrast til den viste film omkring udviklingen i antallet af amerikanere på food stamps.
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
From the Irish Government
The Government today agreed to request financial support from the European Union and the Euro Area Members States. The IMF will also be requested to assist in the provision of support.
The Government welcomes the agreement reached at the Eurogroup meeting today that providing assistance to Ireland is warranted to safeguard financial stability in the EU and in the Euro Area.
In the context of a joint programme EU/IMF, the financial assistance package to the Irish state should be financed from the European financial stabilisation mechanism (EFSM) and the European financial stability facility (EFSF), possibly supplemented by bilateral loans to be negotiated by EU Member States.
EU and euro-area financial support will be provided under a strong policy programme which will be negotiated with the Irish authorities by the Commission and the IMF, in liaison with the ECB.
The programme will address the budgetary challenges of the Irish economy in a decisive manner on the basis of the ambitious budgetary adjustment and comprehensive structural reforms that will be contained in the Government’s Four Year Budgetary Strategy. Given the underlying strengths of the Irish economy, decisive implementation of the programme should allow a return to a robust and sustainable growth, safeguarding the economic and social position of the people of Ireland.
A central element of the programme will also be to support further deep restructuring and the restoration of the long-term viability and financial health of the Irish banking system. It will build on the extensive measures taken by Ireland to strengthen its banking sector, via guarantees, recapitalisation and asset segregation. These measures have helped to maintain financial stability of the Irish banking sector at a time the both the banking system and the Irish economy have confronted significant challenges reflecting both domestic and international factors.
The programme will address the potential future capital needs of the banking sector. By building on the measures already taken by Ireland to address stress in its banking sector, a comprehensive range of measures – including deleveraging and restructuring of the banking sector – will contribute to ensuring that the banking system performs its role in the functioning of the economy.
Since the last Eurogroup meeting on the 16th November there has been very constructive and positive engagement and dialogue between the Irish authorities and the Commission, the ECB and the IMF in order to determine the best way to provide necessary support to address continuing market risks, especially as regard the banking system, in the context of the four-year budgetary plan and the upcoming budget.
And from Ecofin/Eurogroup:
Ministers welcome the request of the Irish Government for financial assistance from the European Union and euro-area Member States. Ministers concur with the Commission and the ECB that providing assistance to Ireland is warranted to safeguard financial stability in the EU and in the euro area.
In the context of a joint EU-IMF programme, the financial assistance package to the Irish state should be financed from the European financial stabilisation mechanism (EFSM) and the European financial stability facility (EFSF), possibly supplemented by bilateral loans to be negotiated by EU Member States. The United Kingdom and Sweden have already indicated today that they stand ready to consider a bilateral loan.
EU and euro-area financial support will be provided under a strong policy programme which will be negotiated with the Irish authorities by the Commission and the IMF, in liaison with the ECB.
The programme will address the fiscal challenges of the Irish economy in a decisive manner. It will build on the fiscal adjustment and structural reforms that will be put forward by the Irish authorities in their Four Year Budgetary Strategy next week.
This strategy will provide the details of the Government’s commitment to achieve fiscal consolidation of 6billion in 2011 as part of a strategy leading to a 3 per cent of GDP deficit by 2014, implying an overall consolidation of 15 billion in the four year strategy, which contains an annual review. Given the strong fundamentals of the Irish economy, decisive implementation of the programme should allow a return to a robust and sustainable growth, safeguarding the economic and social cohesion.
The programme will also include a fund for potential future capital needs of the banking sector. By building on the measures already taken by Ireland to address stress in its banking sector, a comprehensive range of measures including deleveraging and restructuring of the banking sector will contribute to ensuring that the banking system performs its role in the functioning of the economy.
After approval by the Irish Government, the programme will be endorsed by the ECOFIN Council and the Eurogroup, in line with national procedures, on the basis of a Commission and ECB assessment.
From the Irish GovernmentThe Government today agreed to request financial... Læs merePosted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
Kun 5 af de amerikanske delstater har husholdningerne i 2009 en højere gennemsnitlig indkomst i forhold til for 10 år siden iflg. The Economist. I de 5 hårdest ramte stater er faldet på mere end 10% – i Michigan endda på over 20%.
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
Wall Street Journal viser på dette link et kort over budgetunderskud i de amerikanske stater og faldet i staternes indtægter siden 2. kvartal 2009:
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/st_STATEBUDGET100414_20100414.html
Posted af John Yde, 22/11/2010
Figuren herover viser hvilke lande, der ejer den amerikanske gæld. Kina er altså på første pladsen tæt efterfulgt af Japan med UK på tredjepladsen.
Posted af John Yde, 19/11/2010
Der er mulighed for, at guldet er ved at danne et topmønster, som vist med de stiplede linier i chartet herover. Dette mønster vil naturligvis i givet fald være et indirekte signal om, at dollaren er på vej til at blive styrket – altså at EUR/USD er på vej til at reetablere sin tidligere nedadrettede trend. Det er dog vigtigt, at markedet ret nøje overholder de retningslinier, som chartet herover giver udtryk for, hvis topmønstret skal blive til noget. Læg mærke til, at nedturen indtil videre kun rammer trenden i form af 50 dages gl. gennemsnit (den grønne linie), så det er for tidligt at konkludere, at en top er i hus, indtil topmønstret bekræftes ved brud på den stiplede gule linier.